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Prediction for CME (2024-08-05T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-05T16:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32565/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap. The source is likely an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 13780 (S10E55) starting around 2024-08-05T15:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. No CME arrival signatures in solar wind at L1 on 2024-08-06 through 2024-08-09.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-08T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-08-05T19:57:21Z
## Message ID: 20240805-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-08-05T16:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~614 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -55/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-08-05T16:00:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Lucy and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-08-09T10:01Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-08-07T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-08-08T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-08-04T23:12:00-CME-001, 2024-08-05T03:12:00-CME-001, 2024-08-05T05:48:00-CME-001, and 2024-08-05T16:00:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240805_092900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240805_092900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240805_092900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240805_092900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240805_092900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-08-05T16:00:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.1 flare from Active Region 13780 (S10E55) with ID 2024-08-05T15:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-08-05T15:27Z (see notifications 20240805-AL-006 and 20240805-AL-007).

The simulation results also include S-type CMEs with Activity IDs: 2024-08-04T23:12:00-CME-001, 2024-08-05T03:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-08-05T05:48:00-CME-001.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 68.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-08-05T19:57Z
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